Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The UFC heavyweight division is mid-shuffle, determining the new pecking order among the top-ranked contenders as everyone waits for Jon Jones to confirm his heavyweight debut.
Last month it was Alexander Volkov jumping into the top five of the division, and now we have two more top contenders trying to maintain their spots in that group. The main event fighters are ranked close together, but the odds are as steeply contrasted as their fighting styles.
Prelims begin at 5 p.m. Saturday on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Heavyweight main event: No. 2 Curtis Blaydes (-420) vs. No. 4 Derrick Lewis (+335)
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 811px; clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); color: rgb(29, 30, 31); font-size: 16px;">Tale Of The Tape
<tbody>
</tbody></aside>
When odds were first released, Blaydes was a more reasonable sub-3-to-1 favorite. But steady action has pushed his price further and further. It's perhaps a little surprising to see such extreme odds in a heavyweight matchup, where any fighter is one strike away from unconsciousness. Certainly, Lewis has the "puncher's chance." But a look at the performance metrics support Blaydes as having advantages everywhere else.
Takedowns early and often have been a key part of Blaydes' normal game plan, and that should remain the case here. His striking was originally just a setup for his wrestling, though more recently he has shown that once he wears an opponent down, he can use his hands to finish a fight. Given Lewis' subpar wrestling, expect Blaydes to exploit that discrepancy out of the gates. And assuming he's successful, he should slow Lewis down and force him to drop hands as the fight wears on.
But what about the power of Lewis? He obviously has heavy hands, though he's not particularly accurate when throwing them. And he averages about half the rate of strike attempts compared to Blaydes when at a distance. Lewis has the lowest volume of output on the feet of any established fighter on the card. So, this upset potential boils down being able to land a big clean shot when Blaydes is closing in and also how many times Lewis can force a position reset. Those fleeting moments will be his only chance, and could disappear altogether if he becomes exhausted on the mat.
Blaydes has faced plenty of stiff talent, including excellent power strikers. He knows how to stay out of danger and will commit to a dominant game plan. Eventually, he should find himself in a position to overwhelm a fatigued Lewis and get a finish.
E+ recommends: Money line play on Blaydes. Fight does not go the distance as a parlay leg. Blaydes inside the distance or by TKO will be the cheapest play for the matchup.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
The co-main event pits the sixth- and seventh-ranked women's bantamweights against each other. Both Ketlen Vieira (-270) and Yana Kunitskaya (+220) like to push the pace on the feet. But neither has scored a knockdown to date, and it's unlikely that either will get a big edge while trading at a distance. It's the closer positions that will decide things.
Kunitskaya spends a lot of time in the clinch and has owned positional control while there. If she can keep the fight on the fence, she'll get an edge. However, her takedown defense has been questionable so far. Meanwhile, Vieira has gotten the fight to the mat more often, and she has shown better control once there. She'll want to get this fight to the ground, and she'll have the advantage there.
E+ recommends: Money line play on Vieira.
Deep on the undercard, there's value lurking on an underdog. Luis Pena's (+155) performance metrics look better on paper than those of Drakkar Klose (-180) in nearly every way. Though Pena is still relatively new -- and he's stepping up in competition -- he's also still improving his game. His return has been dropping since opening, but there's still some value left on the 'dog here.
<inline2 style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(29, 30, 31);"></inline2>
E+ recommends: Money line lean on Pena.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The UFC heavyweight division is mid-shuffle, determining the new pecking order among the top-ranked contenders as everyone waits for Jon Jones to confirm his heavyweight debut.
Last month it was Alexander Volkov jumping into the top five of the division, and now we have two more top contenders trying to maintain their spots in that group. The main event fighters are ranked close together, but the odds are as steeply contrasted as their fighting styles.
Prelims begin at 5 p.m. Saturday on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Heavyweight main event: No. 2 Curtis Blaydes (-420) vs. No. 4 Derrick Lewis (+335)
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 811px; clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); color: rgb(29, 30, 31); font-size: 16px;">Tale Of The Tape
| CURTIS BLAYDES | DERRICK LEWIS | |
|---|---|---|
| Last fight weight class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Age | 30 | 36 |
| Height | 76 | 75 |
| Reach | 80 | 79 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Analyzed minutes | 127 | 194 |
| Stand-up striking offense | ||
| Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) | 1:2 | 6:2 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.8% | 3.8% |
| Head jab accuracy | 30% | 25% |
| Head power accuracy | 26% | 28% |
| Total stand-up strike ratio | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Striking defense | ||
| Total head strike defense | 67% | 64% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") | 98% | 97% |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per min standing/clinch | 1.60 | 0.19 |
| Takedown accuracy | 56% | 27% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 6 | 74 |
| Takedown defense | 33% | 53% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 99% | 30% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.00 | 0.00 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
When odds were first released, Blaydes was a more reasonable sub-3-to-1 favorite. But steady action has pushed his price further and further. It's perhaps a little surprising to see such extreme odds in a heavyweight matchup, where any fighter is one strike away from unconsciousness. Certainly, Lewis has the "puncher's chance." But a look at the performance metrics support Blaydes as having advantages everywhere else.
Takedowns early and often have been a key part of Blaydes' normal game plan, and that should remain the case here. His striking was originally just a setup for his wrestling, though more recently he has shown that once he wears an opponent down, he can use his hands to finish a fight. Given Lewis' subpar wrestling, expect Blaydes to exploit that discrepancy out of the gates. And assuming he's successful, he should slow Lewis down and force him to drop hands as the fight wears on.
But what about the power of Lewis? He obviously has heavy hands, though he's not particularly accurate when throwing them. And he averages about half the rate of strike attempts compared to Blaydes when at a distance. Lewis has the lowest volume of output on the feet of any established fighter on the card. So, this upset potential boils down being able to land a big clean shot when Blaydes is closing in and also how many times Lewis can force a position reset. Those fleeting moments will be his only chance, and could disappear altogether if he becomes exhausted on the mat.
Blaydes has faced plenty of stiff talent, including excellent power strikers. He knows how to stay out of danger and will commit to a dominant game plan. Eventually, he should find himself in a position to overwhelm a fatigued Lewis and get a finish.
E+ recommends: Money line play on Blaydes. Fight does not go the distance as a parlay leg. Blaydes inside the distance or by TKO will be the cheapest play for the matchup.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
The co-main event pits the sixth- and seventh-ranked women's bantamweights against each other. Both Ketlen Vieira (-270) and Yana Kunitskaya (+220) like to push the pace on the feet. But neither has scored a knockdown to date, and it's unlikely that either will get a big edge while trading at a distance. It's the closer positions that will decide things.
Kunitskaya spends a lot of time in the clinch and has owned positional control while there. If she can keep the fight on the fence, she'll get an edge. However, her takedown defense has been questionable so far. Meanwhile, Vieira has gotten the fight to the mat more often, and she has shown better control once there. She'll want to get this fight to the ground, and she'll have the advantage there.
E+ recommends: Money line play on Vieira.
Deep on the undercard, there's value lurking on an underdog. Luis Pena's (+155) performance metrics look better on paper than those of Drakkar Klose (-180) in nearly every way. Though Pena is still relatively new -- and he's stepping up in competition -- he's also still improving his game. His return has been dropping since opening, but there's still some value left on the 'dog here.
<inline2 style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(29, 30, 31);"></inline2>
E+ recommends: Money line lean on Pena.
